Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Pool Outlook for Carolina

It was a disappointing finish to the year, losing in the Eastern Conference Finals to the Penguins in four games, but the Hurricanes should hold their heads high, as it turned out to be a pretty good finish to the year for them, making the charge into fifth place in the Conference and upsetting two really good teams in the first couple rounds of the playoffs. The Hurricanes showed everyone that they are a team built with good strong players, but it could something better translated in the regular season to help build their confidence against teams like Pittsburgh.

The best fantasy player on the team was Cam Ward, who had a career-high finish with 91 points (39 wins, 6 shutouts & 1 assist), ranking him 10th in the league for pool scoring, 3rd among goaltenders. If his playoff performance was any addition to indicators, he is a bonafide first round pick when it comes to most fantasy pools. Ward jumped 10 spots in pool rankings from the 2008 season. He is turning out to be a model of consistency nowadays, so keep him fairly high in your pool rankings for next season.

With Ward taking on the better part of the goaltending duties, back-up Michael Leighton only finished up with 6 wins in the pool in just over 1,000 minutes on the ice. The Hurricanes did feel that they had to lean on Ward to get into the playoffs, thanks in large part to Leighton's poor back-up numbers.

At 37 years old, it was Ray Whitney who led the Hurricanes' forwards in scoring in 2009, picking up 77 points in 82 GP, but he didn't lead by too much. Eric Staal finished right behind him with 75 points (including 40 goals) in 82 GP, as both players finished in the top 25 in pool scoring in 2009. Include Ward in there, you have three top 25 scorers on the team and that's hard to argue with at the end of the day. Unfortunately, there was a slight drop-off in scoring past Whitney & Staal, as Tuomo Ruutu finished with 54 points in 79 GP, Rod Brind'Amour had 51 points in 80 GP and Sergei Samsonov had 48 points in 81 GP. Depth scoring in key times would likely be considered where the Hurricanes went wrong when things were going bad for the team. They still have a good line-up of players to consider for your pool though.

On defense, there were some ups and downs when it came to some players, some having good (or better) seasons and some dropping off a little bit in their production. Joe Corvo led all Carolina defenders with 38 points in 81 GP, which is more like an average season for him, but he did have such a good year the season before in Ottawa, it does seem a little disappointing now. In 2008, Corvo ranked 142nd in the league in pool scoring, but in 2009, he finished in 231st, 32nd among defenders. Still not too bad though. Having a good year was Anton Babchuk, who came back from Europe to pickup 35 points in 72 GP, his best season ever in the NHL. Joni Pitkanen was up from 2008, but still down from previous bests, scoring 33 points in 71 GP. Dennis Seidenberg also had a better year, picking up 30 points in 70 GP. All four of these defenders are all worthy candidates for your fantasy team.

2010 Season Outlook
In the overall scheme, the Hurricanes have a pretty rosy picture going into the off-season here in 2009, with a good chance to improve for 2010, possibly making the Cup Finals yet again. The team has a good core group of players signed on for the 2010 season and with some young players in the system, some free agents into the mix, we could see a stronger Hurricanes team in the running for a Southeast Division title.

ForwardsDefenseGoaltenders
Ray WhitneyJoe CorvoCam Ward
Eric StaalJoni PitkanenMike Leighton
Rod Brind'AmourTim Gleason
Sergei SamsonovNiclas Wallin
Matt CullenFrank Kaberle
Scott Walker
Patrick Eaves
Brandon Sutter

Currently, the Hurricanes hold 15 players from their regular roster under contract at an approximate cap hit of $42.5 million, leaving the team with potentially enough room to improve their depth. Their current cap hit is about middle of the road among the 30 teams in the league.

Looking forward to their potential free agents, Tuomo Ruutu leads the RFA parade this summer, which also includes Anton Babchuk and Jussi Jokinen. There doesn't seem to be much for cap hit players there or nothing to suggest that they will be a huge burden to the remainder of their cap space.

On the UFA side, Erik Cole, Chad Larose, Dennis Seidenberg and Ryan Bayda will all head to market on July 1st, if they are not signed by then. I would look for all four to return, as they all made reasonable contributions to the team in 2009.

Of course, the Hurricanes don't necessarily have to go with the free agent route with some of the young talent they have brewing in their system. Up front, the possibilities of seeing both Zach Boychuk and Drayson Bowman on the team has to have the Hurricanes brass awfully excited. They are both on the smaller side, but they both possess good speed and plenty of scoring talent, certainly ones to watch in 2010. The Hurricanes are a tad short when it comes to young defenders, however, Jamie McBain is trying his best to rectify that situation.

Overall, the Hurricanes are a great team to pull players from for fantasy drafts, especially for how deep they go. There should be a good number of them on your list, from top players to good depth players, all of which should be players that at least keep your team going at a reasonable pace. Having players that can perform on a consistent average pace, at least you can count on them for those points that you expect in the middle rounds. Look for Ward and Staal to be up near the top again and don't be too surprised to see a bit of a rebound year for Erik Cole.

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