Thursday, April 22, 2010

Pool Outlook for Florida

I think the season can be summed up for the Florida Panthers by saying that injuries to the forward ranks was enough to make the Panthers into a sub-.500 team and the cause of all the woes in their season. The Panthers really couldn't catch a break this season, unless it had something to do with a body part or a stick, because out of all the sub-.500 teams in the NHL this season, they had the fewest goals against (244) and some offense probably would have solved some games on the scoreboard, but it is arguable whether or not it would make a difference to their chance at making the playoffs.

The Panthers were led in pool points by their number one goaltender this season, Tomas Vokoun, who finished with 23 wins, 7 shutouts and 2 assists for 62 points in 2010. That ranks him 69th among all players, just slightly down again in his 3rd season as the number one backstop in Florida. Vokoun had also had some injury problems through the season, especially taking a stick to the head from his own teammate, but he still has his job fairly secure, as they haven't found anyone that can post better numbers behind a lacklustre offense and a still-building defense.

The group of forwards that the Panthers have collected are not a bad group as a whole, but they do seem to be awfully fragile, unless it's the warm Florida sun that really lowers their desire to be better players. Stephen Weiss finally had himself a pretty good season, playing in 80 games and picking up 60 points (28 goals & 32 assists), which is about par for him. He led all forwards for the Panthers in points. Other top forwards, Nathan Horton and David Booth each had suffered though some injuries and couldn't produce at the levels that the organization hoped for and their injuries may be a deterrent from anyone wanting to pick them up in any fantasy pool too early. Michal Frolik scored 21 goals for the Panthers, which should bump his stock up a little bit, while age becomes a little more of a question mark for Steve Reinprecht, Cory Stillman and Radek Dvorak, as they all finished in the 30-point range.

It was the first season in a long time that the Panthers didn't have Jay Bouwmeester in their line-up and they tried to make do without him, giving Bryan McCabe the job of being the team's captain and lead defenseman, both offensively and defensively. McCabe finally pieced together another 82-game season, after dealing with some minor injury problems in the two seasons before. He's got lots of upside in Florida, if the forwards can help out. Keith Ballard, Dimitri Kulikov and Bryan Allen round out the general core of the Panthers defense through 2010, not including Dennis Seidenberg, who was dealt at the deadline, and the team consistently swapped out the six hole all season long.

Behind the team's number one goalie was Scott Clemmensen, who earned quite a few stripes in New Jersey the season before, while Martin Brodeur went down. Clemmensen managed to find a new gig in the summer during free agency, but it wasn't much of a starting job. Clemmensen appeared in only 23 games for the Panthers, compiling a 9-8-2 record with 1 shutout. That was good for 20 points in pool scoring, ranking him 412th in the league and 50th among all goalies. That was definitely a far cry from the season he had starting in Jersey. Young Russian keeper Alexander Salak also had one start for the Panthers, but is unlikely to see much more action with both Vokoun and Clemmensen already signed on for next season, barring injury, of course.

2011 Season Outlook
Looking at the 2010 finishing roster and what the team already has signed on for 2011, I think the first thing you can acknowledge is that the Panthers are really big on patience. I think that the patient route is a good one, because there is very little sense in taking a part a team that has so much promise and had a very small window of opportunity to show it off. It might not be much, but at least it's something, right?

ForwardsDefenseGoalies
Stephen WeissBryan McCabeTomas Vokoun
Nathan HortonKeith BallardScott Clemmensen
Michal FrolikDimitri Kulikov
Steve ReinprechtBryan Allen
Cory Stillman
Radek Dvorak
Rostislav Olesz
David Booth
Byron Bitz

For the most part, this will be the core of the team going forward, especially with a few of these guys signed on beyond the 2011 season. Going into the Summer silly season, the Panthers are currently sitting with 15 regular line-up players signed on for an approximate cap hit of $44.2 million. That is a pretty excellent number for having such a solid core of players, now if only they can all stay healthy, we might be able to see some very good hockey from the Miami area.

Free agency isn't a big concern for the Panthers, but it does look like they will have some room to move and add in the off-season, if they so choose. Gregory Campbell is the highest touted free agent coming off their roster this Summer and he's a restricted free agent. Other notable RFAs include Shawn Matthias, Kamil Kreps, Michal Repik and tough guy Nick Tarnasky. All three should be getting qualified and likely taking home their offer sheets right away, mostly due to a lack of ice-time in the 2010 season.

The unrestricted free agent crop from Florida is fairly minimal, but does include tough defenseman, Steve MacIntyre, but not a lot more, in terms of NHL-ready talent. With the core fairly locked up, the UFA list remains fairly short.

The Panthers are not well-stocked when it comes to their youth these days, as I just comb over what they are working on in their system. The Hockey News' Future Watch has three goalies in the mix, including their top prospect, Jacob Markstrom, who would have to really amaze to draw into a regular job with the Panthers next season. Shawn Matthias and Michal Repik have drawn into the Panthers' line-up up front on a less-than-regular basis, but have a good shot at a job in 2011, while Keaton Ellerby found his way into 22 games. They should be looking to stock up some picks and prospects soon or else all their hard work of late will go for naught.

The Panthers do have their 1st round pick in this June's Entry Draft, so they will get themselves a top-end prospect out of the deal. I would have to think that they could use anything but a goalie, which plays well into the pick position, so I would gather that they are looking for the best player at either forward or defense, depending on who is available.

What I said at this time last year: "I like the promise that the Panthers showed in 2009 and the management team seems to finally have a positive direction for this team. If they can convey that idea to Jay Bouwmeester in the next couple months, they might be able to re-sign him and keep that little bit of credibility with their team for another season or more. Nathan Horton will need to finally take the reins of the team and be the leader that a young club requires and then lead by example on the scoresheet. I am curious to see how free agency treats the Panthers, but they should be okay, thanks to plenty of cap space."

I'm not sure how much credibility the management staff saved in the off-season by trading the rights to sign Bouwmeester away to the Flames, but they didn't do too badly at free agency, picking up Reinprecht, among others. Horton didn't exactly take charge of the team, which was really down on itself (it seemed) when Booth went down with his concussion, so there were plenty of struggles there. The Panthers had all sorts of extraneous circumstances for last year's statement to come true as a whole, but I digress.

In the 2011 season, I'm not entirely sure what to expect. If the team can stay healthy, they can be a very productive team, having a good core of players (both youth and veteran) ready to go and knowing each other fairly well. The Panthers have cap space again, but their own enforced budget is about the only thing that can restrict the team from making an extra leap or bound, but I won't say that the playoffs are impossible, just yet. The Southeast Division is getting harder and harder to compete in, so they will definitely have to make good with what they have in stock.

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