Monday, June 28, 2010

Top 20 UFA's According to Pool Points

So, I thought I would give a quick rundown of all the potential unrestricted free agents in order of how I (very easily) score pool points. Forwards and defense are just their goals and assists, while goaltenders get 2 points for a win, 2 points for a shutout and a single point for assists. This actually works out really well and has made for some very competitive pools. Anyways, here are the players in the order that the points have laid them out for us.

Evgeni Nabokov, goalie
2010 Points: 94, 9th overall, 3rd among goalies
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $5.375 million

The Sharks have already said good-bye to Nabokov, allowing the Flyers to talk to him already, but it sounds like he'll wait to hit the wire to see what the teams in need of a starting goaltender are saying, not to mention the interest back home in Russia from the KHL.

Ilya Kovalchuk, forward
2010 Points: 85, 18th overall, 11th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $6.389 million

There has been plenty of interest circulating the rumour mill, for whatever that's worth these days. Kovalchuk has likely seen an offer from the Devils, but he does hold a lot of cards going into July 1st. I think the understanding is that he wants to win a Stanley Cup and he might be willing to be paid less to do so. The KHL is also knocking on his door wanting him to come home, so there is always that possibility.

Chris Mason, goalie
2010 Points: 64, 62nd overall, 16th among goalies
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $3 million

From what I've gathered in my readings, Chris Mason has had some talks with the St. Louis Blues in order to get a new deal done to stay, but since we're down to the wire, it might be in the Blues best interest to see who hits the free agent market and for how much. No numbers have been leaked as to what Mason may want, but the Blues are in fine shape against the cap and may want to try and spend more with a higher ranked goalie before settling with Mason.

Jose Theodore, goalie
2010 Points: 64, 63rd overall, 17th among goalies
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $4.5 million

With the same kind of numbers as Mason above him, Theodore might lose out to Mason in terms of consistency in one's playing style. Mason may not be an upper-tier goaltender, but he is rock solid as a middle of the pack keeper that will keep you in games, while Theodore can either be really good or really bad and it's hard to gauge him from one night to the next. The Capitals are going a different direction, so Theodore will probably get some phone calls regardless.

Maxim Afinogenov, forward
2010 Points: 61, 72nd overall, 51st among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $800,000

While playing with Kovalchuk in Atlanta, Afinogenov turned into one hell of a bargain for the Thrashers that plucked him out of obscurity to help out a fellow Russian's decision to stick around Georgia... which failed miserably. There's a part of me that thinks he was only there for Kovalchuk and since no one really wanted him before, he might just pack up his stuff and head home. On the flip side, he might get a 1-year deal based on his 2010 output, but I wouldn't hold him to those numbers in 2011.

Ray Whitney, forward
2010 Points: 58, 80th overall, 57th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $3.55 million

The Hurricanes will not be a big spending team in the 2011 season, likely putting their budget down around the salary cap floor ($43.4 million), which means that the unrestricted free agent crop will all likely grow themselves right out of the picture. Whitney, 38, still has a couple of years left, if not more in the Mark Recchi sense, and does have playoff experience. I would look for him to choose a contender on paper heading into the year.

Vaclav Prospal, forward
2010 Points: 58, 81st overall, 58th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $1.1 million

Another bargain at $1.1 million, but the New York Rangers failed to really make any good with Prospal in the line-up missing the playoffs in 2010. Prospal has been a bit of a sore spot as a free agent, not living up to all the expectations placed upon him, but still not putting up bad numbers. At age 35, he is a flight risk for Europe and it really wouldn't come as a big surprise to me.

Marty Turco, goalie
2010 Points: 56, 91st overall, 23rd among goalies
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $5.7 million

It was pretty much common knowledge before the playoffs were over that the Dallas Stars were going to go with Kari Lehtonen as their number one guy in 2011 and Marty Turco had pretty much played his last game in Dallas. It was a fairly poor year when you compare his numbers before 2010 to the 2010 season, but the Stars were not a great team in front of him either. Turco will get his shot somewhere, already had some interest from the Flyers, so we'll see where he lands in a week's time.

Matthew Lombardi, forward
2010 Points: 53, 108th overall, 80th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $1.8 million

The Coyotes managed to get a pretty decent year out of Matthew Lombardi, but he wasn't terribly clutch in the playoffs for them, nor was he too clutch in the playoffs. Nevertheless, Lombardi does possess some great speed, but he still needs just a little bit more direction in his mind to achieve great things in the NHL. He'll find a home, but he may have to settle for one that just gives him plenty of ice-time, instead of wins.

Saku Koivu, forward
2010 Points: 52, 112th overall, 84th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $3.25 million

The jury is still out in Anaheim as to whether or not Teemu Selanne will make anything official, as per his retirement or return, and that might have a lot to do with the decision whether or not Saku Koivu would return to the Ducks or not. Koivu participated in somewhat of a failed experiment playing with his fellow countryman and now at age 35, Koivu will really want to find somewhere he can win to cap off an amazing career... sooner rather than later.

Alexander Frolov, forward
2010 Points: 51, 119th overall, 90th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $2.9 million

Frolov was subjected to plenty of trade rumours during the 2010 season, but Kings GM Dean Lombardi stuck to his guns all year with him and it paid off with lending a hand to get into the playoffs. Frolov is only 28 years old and has plenty of time to find himself a winner, but he's really got to make a better name for himself as a top line guy or else he might fall to the wayside and be forced to go home as well.

Alexei Ponikarovsky, forward
2010 Points: 50, 122nd overall, 93rd among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $2.1 million

The Penguins thought that they would be getting themselves a real trigger man in Ponikarovsky when they acquired him from the Maple Leafs at the deadline, but he went ice-cold when the playoffs rolled around. Going ice-cold on a team with so much scoring potential should be unheard of and frowned upon and I do believe it was in the end. Ponikarovsky will go to the open market, but what kind of tag will he have hanging around his neck? I don't think it would be a good one.

Olli Jokinen, forward
2010 Points: 50, 124th overall, 95th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $5.25 million

A bust with the Calgary Flames to start the season, a late season bust with the New York Rangers, Olli Jokinen was once considered to be a top end centre in the NHL, but was playing for a poor team in the Florida Panthers for a number of years. Well, his stock dropped dramatically, despite the 50 points he put up on the board, more so for the massive cap hit that weighed down the two teams that had him during the year. If he stays in the NHL, it will be for a substantial pay cut, but he has a tarnished reputation, so it might be hard for him to find good work.

Sergei Gonchar, defense
2010 Points: 50, 125th overall, 6th among defense
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $5 million

There wasn't much terribly wrong with Gonchar's game in 2010, except that he missed 20 games due to injury. He turned 36 in April and the Penguins do not want to give him his desired 3-year contract, rather just a 2-year deal, just in case he decides to call it quits after one or two years and the Penguins will be on the hook for his cap hit due to the 35+ contract rule. It sounds like he might hit free agency on Thursday, but I'm sure the Penguins will want him more than they want to sign Dan Hamhuis, who they traded for at the Entry Draft.

Johan Hedberg, goalie
2010 Points: 49, 133rd overall, 25th among goalies
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $1.1 million

Hedberg was definitely one of the best make-shift starting goalies in the league today, since he doesn't mind being thrown into the role and performs admirably when he is. Unfortunately for him, he's been doing it for the Thrashers for the last four seasons and it becomes forgotten when the next season starts and you get to choose your pool team again, unless you're in a keeper league and you don't mind carrying him around as a depth goalie. I haven't seen too much about Hedberg as of yet, but I imagine he'll either re-sign with the Thrashers or go to a home that could use a 1b goaltender.

Lee Stempniak, forward
2010 Points: 48, 135th overall, 100th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $2.5 million

Stempniak was one of a few players that really stepped it up after being dealt during the season, as he really lit it up with the Phoenix Coyotes, scoring 14 goals in 18 games with the club after joining them from Toronto. It was a pretty good run, but I'm skeptical to think that it will earn him a big raise, if any raise from his $2.5 million in 2010, but I'm sure there will be a team that will look at him and try to put him in the checking/scoring role on the 2nd/3rd line.

Teemu Selanne, forward
2010 Points: 48, 136th overall, 101st among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $2.625 million

I'm not sure if you can really consider Teemu Selanne to be a true unrestricted free agent, since there really only seems to be two choices for the veteran Finn, the Ducks or retirement. There is plenty to suggest that retirement is closer than a return, but a return hasn't been completely ruled out yet. The longer that this is on the back burner, the longer I would think Selanne is going to hang it up, so don't hold your breath for too long here.

Matt Cullen, forward
2010 Points: 48, 140th overall, 105th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $2.875 million

A rental player for the Ottawa Senators playoff run would likely look good as a potential 2nd line centre or better off as a 3rd line checking centre on some clubs. He'll likely fetch about the same cap hit in a new deal and for the most part, he should be considered to be worth it. Decent in the face-off circle and only 33 years old, so a few years on a new deal shouldn't hurt a club in the long run.

Bill Guerin, forward
2010 Points: 45, 155th overall, 116th among forwards
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $2 million

Much in the same category as Selanne above him, Bill Guerin is likely operating between retirement and a return to the Penguins for another season.  In November, Guerin will turn 40, but you have to believe playing with the likes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin has to keep an aging veteran feeling young at heart.  I haven't seen too much about Guerin's situation, but I would figure that the Penguins are likely taking their cap situation into account when dealing with Guerin.  He could be well-received again in some fantasy circles.

Antero Niittymaki, goalie
2010 Points: 45, 158th overall, 27th among goalies
2010 Salary Cap Hit: $600,000

To Niittymaki's credit, he really showed some flashes of brilliance when he had to take the helm in Tampa Bay and look after the goaltending duties for a while.  Unfortunately, it really didn't last for as long as the Lightning coaching staff would have liked or else they would have been a touch closer to the playoffs.  Nevertheless, Niittymaki should have shown that he is good enough to be a solid back-up, with the possibility of standing in as a starter, barring the unforeseen.  A slight raise on his cap hit for the short term is not out of the question and I think he'll find a pretty good home during free agency.

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