Thursday, September 01, 2011

2012 Projections: St. Louis

When looking at the St. Louis Blues, you can see the direction the team is wanting to take, the potential in the youth that they have acquired in various ways and the leadership that they will get from the veterans that they have added in the past few months.

With all of that being said, team building is such a complicated equation, you have to wonder if all the pieces that are being put together are going to do all the right things, leading to more strokes in the important column in the standings.

For the Blues, their goaltender is good, their top two scoring defensemen are still pretty young and the young forwards took a pretty good beating in the 2011 season, which makes you question their durability going into 2012.

I think the Blues could be an exciting team to watch this coming season, which includes on the scoresheet, but I may be a bit more hesitant to go out and make a push for Blues players at the draft, just for the sake of the questions I had already asked above.

ForwardsDefenseGoalies
Chris Stewart70Alex Pietrangelo50Jaroslav Halak75
David Backes65Kevin Shattenkirk40Brian Elliot20
T.J. Oshie60Carlo Colaiacovo35
Patrik Berglund60Roman Polak15
Alex Steen55Barret Jackman10
Andy McDonald55Nikita Nikitin10
Matt D'Agostini40Kent Huskins5
Jason Arnott35
Jamie Langenbrunner30
Vladimir Sobotka30
B.J. Crombeen10
Scott Nichol5
David Perron0
Phillip McRae25Ian Cole10Ben Bishop5
Jonathan Cheechoo20Danny Syvret5
Stefan Della Rovere10

Pool Worthy Forwards (Inside the top 160, 40 points)
There is some pretty good forwards on this list, but stringing points together against some very difficult Western Conference defense.  I think there may be some marginal improvement in players like Chris Stewart, David Backes and Patrik Berglund, with T.J. Oshie getting back into a reasonable form after a difficult 2011 season, but I can't see the numbers blasting off into the stratosphere just yet.

If there was a good swing man to choose from, I would say it is possibly Andy McDonald, who also had a tough 2011 season, due to injuries, but I get the feeling that this season, he may fall into a secondary role, especially if the top end youth starts to become more prominent on the scoresheet.  Of course, when the team needs that bit of veteran leadership, McDonald will be the first person they look to.

Pool Worthy Defensemen (Inside the top 80, 25 points)
The Blues' defense may not have much experience, but man, do they have potential.  Alex Pietrangelo will lead a motley group of blueliners into the 2012 season and I think he breaks through with some ferociousness.  I could see him as one of the biggest bright spots in St. Louis, one that a lot of poolies would like to get a hold of early.

The acquisition of Kevin Shattenkirk from the Avalanche before the end of the 2011 season also looks like a solid pick-up, but can he break through the sophomore jinx that a lot of rookies fall prey to?  Yes, to a point... he won't suffer as bad as some, especially with solid partners to help him along.

Don't forget Carlo Colaiacovo... a little injury-prone, but if he can be a late-round defenseman on your team, he might be able to become a bit of a bargain.

Pool Worthy Goalies (Inside the top 40, 25 points)
When  you look at Jaroslav Halak's numbers compared to Carey Price's in 2011, the easy argument is to say that the Canadiens made the right decision when they had to choose between the two.  I think the Blues made Halak's numbers somewhat droll, which led to this argument and think Price may have found the same fate, if he was dealt instead.  Halak is still a pretty good goalie, now facing life in a lesser spotlight, which is good, because his numbers were not great.  I think they bounce back a bit with a growing (and hopefully healthy) team, but youth will probably still see them outside of the playoffs.

Pool Worthy Rookies
I don't think there is a rookie that is going to jump into the top six forwards or the top four defensemen this season for St. Louis, since the closest one is Vladimir Tarasenko and he's staying for another season in Russia.  Any leaps into those top positions will take some injuries, which isn't far-fetched, but you can't count on them either.

Key Injuries
The amount of uncertainty surrounding David Perron is quite scary, which is why I have him listed as 0 points for the season.  Dealing with a major concussion, Perron has already said that he won't be able to start the season, which could put his season (and possibly his career) in doubt.  Right now, it is definitely recommended not to consider him for your pool team, even as a last round gamble pick.

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