Thursday, September 01, 2011

2012 Projections: Washington

I think it was fair to say that there was a lot of poolies out there that were none too pleased about the Washington Capitals in the 2011 season.  I'm sure there were a number of them confident in their investments in Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green, thinking it was a walk in the park, expecting to collect all of their winnings before they left their respective drafts last year.  But whoa there, sunshine... coach Bruce Boudreau had a surprise for you lot.

To Boudreau's credit, he was able to rein in some very talent offensive players and get them to buy into a more playoff-rugged style of game, a style that he thought would rule the roost in the East, especially if his elite scorers could turn it on and off like a light switch.  Well, going into the 2012 season, it may be a matter of worrying if the offense will turn on from season to season, rather than from game to game.  This will be the real gamble, in my eyes, but one I'm willing to take.

I think with the addition of some gritty forwards in the bottom six, the top six may be able to focus on what they do best.  The addition of Hamrlik to the back end and Vokoun to the crease, should solidify the back end as well, which again, makes the top six a little more flexible.

ForwardsDefenseGoalies
Alex Ovechkin95Mike Green50Tomas Vokoun75
Nicklas Backstrom85Dennis Wideman45Michal Neuvirth35
Alex Semin75John Carlson45Braden Holtby10
Brooks Laich60Roman Hamrlik30
Mike Knuble45Tom Poti30
Marcus Johansson40Karl Alzner20
Troy Brouwer35John Erskine10
Joel Ward30Jeff Schultz10
Jason Chimera25
Jeff Halpern20
Matt Hendricks20
Mathieu Perreault30
Cody Eakin15

Pool Worthy Forwards (Inside the top 160, 35 points)
Now, let's be clear... I think the Capitals forwards are going to bounce back, but I don't think they'll bounce back into stellar numbers.  Alex Ovechkin will take a nice run at the scoring title, Nicklas Backstrom will tag along as his right hand man, while Alex Semin might just care enough for someone to take him off the team's hands, alleviating that ongoing headache.  My numbers are not too far off of a stellar outbreak of points either, trying to stay reasonably conservative, just in case.

The player I like to have a bit more of a breakout would be Brooks Laich, who I think can finally crack that 60-point barrier with the Capitals.  If the power play picks up, Laich finds some time with the top unit, I like him to come from a little ways down to become a bargain pick-up.

The new acquisitions, Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward and Jeff Halpern, will definitely be used in the role player capacity, likely quite well, but their fantasy value will be somewhat understated.  I don't think I would jump on them, just because they have changed to a higher scoring team.

Pool Worthy Defensemen (Inside the top 80, 20 points)
The defense can potentially pack a real punch offensively, which may make up for some of their shortcomings defensively, unless the coach can rein them in as well.

The key to Mike Green's season is health, which does make him a greater risk than everyone else on the Capitals blueline.  Dennis Wideman and John Carlson should provide ample cover for Green, if the worst happens and at a lot less risk, so they may draw some more consideration for that reason alone.  Still, Green should still be a lock for the first defenseman taken in the draft.

Roman Hamrlik and Tom Poti's roles should be diminished a little, but how would you like those two to provide depth for your side?

Pool Worthy Goalies (Inside the top 40, 25 points)
Well, you can't expect the Washington Capitals not to play Tomas Vokoun, since they went out and signed him in the off-season, no matter how much they paid for him.  Yes, Vokoun took a bit of a pay cut, but he is a starting goalie in the league, not to mention being a workhorse, so it would be hard to believe him not taking the number one job out of camp.

Michal Neuvirth will get his minutes, believe me.  The Capitals did well platooning a couple of goalies in 2011, but this will be a little less platooning and a whole lot more support for Neuvirth's game in 2012.  When Neuvirth plays, he will be a threat for points, not to mention a capable starter, if required.

Pool Worthy Rookies
The top six could be tough to break into, the defense is already quite stacked and the trio that has dibs on the crease are not rookies any more, so the Capitals might be a little light in the freshman department.  I don't think that this is a bad thing, the Capitals are still considered a young team in the league.

Key Injuries
None.

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