Thursday, September 01, 2011

2012 Projections: Winnipeg

There's a good chance that a lot of people are going to feel strange picking from the Winnipeg Jets again, I know I will be.  Are there going to be side bets on who the first Jets player taken will be?

The Jets will be hitting the ground running, as the Atlanta Thrashers have provided a good base to work from, despite not being a playoff team in the 2011 season.  There is some solid talent in this line-up, where we'll get to see some pretty good hockey and hopefully more than their fair share of scoring.

Unfortunately, the Jets will be behind the 8-ball, since they still will be playing in the Southeast Division, which means that their travel schedule will be off the charts, thus making it a little more difficult on their bodies.  Fatigue will set in eventually and numbers should be expected to drop off.  This point alone will likely push a significant discount on the team's projections, but some will still be good pool players regardless.

ForwardsDefenseGoalies
Andrew Ladd60Dustin Byfuglien55Ondrej Pavelec40
Evander Kane50Tobias Enstrom55Chris Mason30
Bryan Little45Ron Hainsey15
Blake Wheeler40Johnny Oduya15
Nikolai Antropov35Randy Jones10
Alex Burmistrov35Mark Stuart5
Eric Fehr30
Chris Thorburn15
Tim Stapleton15
Jim Slater10
Tanner Glass10
Carl Klingberg25Derek Meech15
Patrice Cormier20Paul Postma10
Kendal McArdle10

Pool Worthy Forwards (Inside the top 160, 35 points)
The Jets are not looking terribly deep up front for scoring, which may detract from the return of hockey to the desperate city of Winnipeg, but there certainly is some worthy players to pick from, later on in the draft.

The emergence of Andrew Ladd as a top end player has been quite the transformation, as he was thrown into the role after the Blackhawks fire sale.  Ladd doesn't have a great deal of help around him quite yet, but he does have the tools to excel in Winnipeg, so he'll be a good pick for a team this year.

I like the prospect of Evander Kane having a breakout year, he's getting close to jumping into some more elite company, but he also needs a little bit more service, possibly a true number one playmaking centre.  Still, he's got a great shot that should light the lamp at least 25 times this season.

One player that I think has the potential of making a good jump this year is Alex Burmistrov, who showed some real flashes of brilliance as a rookie in 2011, but the circumstances of travel and a sophomore season is weighing against him.  There is potential, but I'm not ready to bet on him capitalizing on it yet.

Pool Worthy Defensemen (Inside the top 80, 20 points)
The Jets are blessed with a pair of the best defensemen in the game at the moment, with both Dustin Byfuglien and Tobias Enstrom, both finishing in the top 10 in blueline scoring in the 2011 season.  They should be poised for another big year, as they are both still young players in the league and have room to grow.  This may not be a big growth year for either player, but they should be putting up some good numbers.

Besides the top two, at the moment, I don't really see much for points elsewhere on their roster.

Pool Worthy Goalies (Inside the top 40, 25 points)
It will be a long year for the keepers in Winnipeg, as they may suffer some terrible fates in the 2012 season.  The Jets should be able to score some goals, but their defensive play is a tad suspect, which may leave the goalies high and dry from time to time.  Ondrej Pavelec should see the bulk of the minutes, but when he struggles, Chris Mason could get some good stretches of starts, so points for both goalies won't be high, but they will be worthy of a look.

Pool Worthy Rookies
A few players that saw some time with the big club in the 2011 season, forwards Carl Klingberg and Patrice Cormier and defenseman Paul Postma highlight a rookie class for the Jets this season, but it is rather unclear how effective they may be with the club.  The Jets may not be terribly deep in the scoring department, which may affect the service these rookies get, so their numbers may not be too impressive.  Check back with them mid-season.

Unsigned Players
One key restricted free agent still left unsigned, defenseman Zach Bogosian is still waiting for a deal to get done.  After two good seasons, the young American defender had a down year in Atlanta, so it could be somewhat difficult to gauge where he fits in the market place for a new deal.  I think once he's signed, he'll be due for a good year.

Key Injuries
None.

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