Sunday, September 18, 2011

Weeding Out the Injury Prone for 2011

As we near the pool draft date, a good section of homework that should be done is making a note of which players you should avoid, because they have been tagged with the term... injury prone.

This is the fourth year I have done up a post like this, although when it comes to doing the draft, I have made the mistake of not following my own advice, only to see my team fall in the infirmary.  First, I'll have a look at the new additions to the list and then below, you can have a look at those I have already deemed to be injury prone and you can make your notes accordingly.

First up on the list, defenseman Tom Poti, who failed the team's physical to start the pre-season and he is now scheduled to miss the entire training camp and pre-season, plus the start of his season is in doubt, dealing with some lower-body injuries from last season.  Poti has not seen a full season of play in his NHL career, playing 81 games once and 80 games once.  In the last five seasons, he has missed a good number of games, which has to hurt his consistency.  He's probably a good player to avoid this year.

Blue Jackets winger Krisitian Huselius will start the season on the shelf, thanks to a torn pectoral muscle in off-season training. He is expected to be out until the middle of January. Huselius had some trouble staying healthy in the 2011 season, missing out on 42 games to injury, in two different stretches.  Huselius has seen some good seasons, health-wise, but he hasn't wowed anyone with his durability.  He's injured now, so don't take him, but he's becoming injury prone, so do flag him for down the road.

Now with the Anaheim Ducks, defenseman Kurtis Foster will take a long history of injuries to town, starting with some knee inflammation, which is currently keeping him out of training camp sessions. Foster has had a number of injuries, including a couple serious injuries, but he has also missed a number of smaller stretches, which hurts his consistency as an offensive defenseman.  There was real pool potential for Foster, but he has proved to be more trouble than he's worth.

Canucks defenseman Kevin Bieksa prides himself on his rough and tumble play, but he has seen a lot of bad luck in his NHL career. In recent years, the 30-year old blueliner has seen his foot broken twice and his legs lacerated on two different occasions. Bieksa is a valuable member of the blueline, but there are plenty of durability questions lingering going in to the 2012 season.

Signed in the off-season by the Columbus Blue Jackets, defenseman Radek Martinek going to try and shake some injury woes that have followed him through his career.  Minor injuries in 2011 kept him out of 18 games, but in 2010, he lost 66 games to a torn ACL and he also lost 31 games in 2009 to two shoulder injuries.  That is just a taste of what Martinek has gone through, so it would likely be a better bet to stay away from him on draft night.

The last few seasons have not been kind to Senators defenseman Sergei Gonchar, as his 2011 season was marred by a back injury, a lower-body injury and a concussion, which limited him to only 67 games with his new club. In Pittsburgh, he missed 56 games in 2009 to a shoulder injury and then another 12 games to a broken wrist in 2010, which has made a cause for concern in my books. He hasn't been known as an injury-prone player before, but it's getting hard to deny with injuries like that now.

Avalanche forward Tomas Fleischmann is another one of those players that you would consider to be rather unlucky, as a lot of the time he has missed in his NHL career has been due to illnesses rather than hockey-related injuries.  A pulmonary emboli ended his 2011 season early, not long after catching fire with the Avalanche after a mid-season trade.  In 2010, a blood clot in his leg caused him to miss 10 games and pneumonia caused him to miss nine games in 2009.  Fleischmann plays a soft game, which should, in theory, keep him healthy, but that just hasn't been the case lately.

It sounds like he's healthy in training camp this year, but defenseman Filip Kuba has had his share of trips to see the doctor in his career, consistently missing games throughout each season in his NHL career. Kuba played 81 games once, 2007 with Tampa Bay, but since he has missed 7 or more games in each season between Tampa and Ottawa. Last season, he missed 16 games to a broken leg, which was the only injury of note last year.  He's a high risk, medium reward on the blueline.

Not necessarily categorized as a fantasy defender, but rather a prolific shot blocker and a hard hitter, Anton Volchenkov is one of the better candidates for injury in an NHL season, as he puts himself in harm's way every night.  If Volchenkov could actually play a full season in the NHL, he might actually be good enough to earn enough points to be in the fantasy conversation, but since that has yet to happen for him, it's a bit of a stretch.  If your pool goes as deep to consider Volchenkov, move right along.

The Los Angeles Kings are taking a shot with scoring winger Simon Gagne, who has been known to be a bit of a fragile player in his days.  In the last four seasons, Gagne has missed 93 games to numerous injuries, between a neck injury, foot surgery, groin hernia and a concussion.  All of these injuries are awfully concerning, but with a tougher Kings team around him, Gagne may be able to get back on track and get his career together again.  I would exercise caution with him though, but there is no denying that he could be a high reward player.

So, those are my ten additions to the injury prone list this year.  You could take my advice and adjust your lists accordingly or you can live on the edge, which is, admittedly, a little bit more fun.  Now, I have a recap of the last three years worth of lists that I've put together, have a look at these as well and be sure to adjust your lists accordingly here too.

PlayerTeamAdded InList Status
Todd BertuzziDET2008Having only missed one game over the past two seasons, Bertuzzi has started to work himself off this list, but it was his back that put him back on the shelf for that game and he isn't getting any younger, so I would keep him on watch for the time being.  Don't rush to get Bertuzzi, but he has shown some durability of late, so he doesn't feel quite as risky.
Ales HemskyEDM2008Hemsky has not earned any trust since he was originally placed on the injury prone list three years ago.  He is one of the more natural offensive talents in the league, but can't stay healthy to prove it.  I would stay away from Hemsky at all costs, no matter how good the Oilers may be around him now.
Ray WhitneyPHO2008Minor knocks and bumps over the last three seasons have kept Whitney out of seven games, which is a pretty decent ratio.  As he moves into the twilight of his career, he is seemingly getting a little wiser to the game.  I'd feel comfortable picking him, but with a 5-game discount.
Erik ColeMTL2008The 2011 season was his first year playing a full 82-game schedule, which is a definite plus for Cole, but he is certainly not out of the woods just yet.  Big teams like to pick on Montreal because of their size, which is why they brought Cole in through free agency, but he'll have to defend a lot to be effective.  This season could hurt.
Ed JovanovskiFLA2008I might have thought to take Jovanovski off this list in 2009, but that would have been silly.  The hulking defenseman missed 16 games in 2010 and 32 games in 2011, which makes him a perfect candidate for the injury prone list, so his name stays.  Jovanovski has great offensive potential, but at best, he's the last defenseman you should be picking up, looking for a bargain.
David LegwandNAS2008Legwand has only had one healthy season since his posting in 2008 and that was in the 2010 season.  Last season, he missed 18 games to lower-body injuries, which exercises his right to be included.  Legwand may be a good one to avoid again this season.
Kari LehtonenDAL2008It was looking like Lehtonen was going to look a lot more like Rick DiPietro than Marc-Andre Fleury, but his move to Dallas is starting to pay off nicely.  Lehtonen is looking much healthier these days and he was able to post almost 70 appearances in 2011, minus a slight back injury.  I'd feel a bit more comfortable with him, but with some caution.
Stephen WeissFLA2008Since the 2008 season, Weiss has only missed 12 games with the Panthers, missing six last season to three minor knocks.  Weiss is getting better physically, after a bit of a struggle to start his career.  I would feel fairly comfortable picking him today, especially with some new talent around him, thanks to an exciting off-season.
Daniel BrierePHI2009Last season, Briere missed five games, but three of those were due to suspension, so they don't really count.  Despite his size, Briere has learned to evolve as a player and he has certainly been better at keeping himself healthy of late.  I would likely skip Briere, if I had a healthier option at draft time, but there are not many options that are truly better.
Marian GaborikNYR2009Since joining the Rangers for the 2010 season, Gaborik has not had it any easier on his body, even suffering a dreaded concussion in late-February, missing six games.  The electric Slovak may have all kinds of skills, but he cannot stay healthy for the life of him.  If you take him, prepare yourself to be without him for at least 10 games in a year.
Tim ConnollyTOR2009Connolly was brought to Toronto to help Phil Kessel out, but to be truly effective, he'll have to be on the ice for the same amount of time as Kessel.  In 2011, Connolly missed 14 games to a number of injuries, which doesn't provide a great deal of confidence to me as a poolie.  The two should have good chemistry, but they won't from the infirmary.
Paul StastnyCOL2009Another one of those great talents in the league, Stastny can be a great fantasy player, but he does find those hiccups in his season, which really hurt his consistency.  In 2011, he missed eight games, including the last five to a leg injury.  The Avalanche should be an offensive club again this season, but I still question how effective Stastny will be, unless he plays all 82 games.
Steve SullivanPIT2009It is somewhat ironic that the Penguins have turned to an injury-prone player to help supplement the offense while Sidney Crosby's concussion issues linger.  Sullivan lost 38 games last season to lower-body injuries after coming off a complete 2010 season, which is a shame.  Even if the word is that Sullivan is 100% going into Penguins camp, I don't think I would touch him with a 10-foot pole.
Rick DiPietroNYI2009The king of the injury prone list.  When you think of injury prone, you think of DiPietro.  Well, with Evgeni Nabokov in the house on Long Island, there could be even less reason to take DiPietro this season, but if you wanted to count, we could also take into account a facial injury in February, which ended his season early... again.  Why bother?
Eric BrewerTAM2009We've seen two seasons since Brewer has been added to the injury prone list and he has missed 29 games in those two seasons, between St. Louis and Tampa Bay.  His point production has suffered in recent years as well, so frankly, there are two reasons why you shouldn't be going after Brewer for your pool team.
David BoothFLA2010After Booth got knocked out of the 2010 season with concussion problems, he bounced right back in the 2011 season to play a full 82-game schedule.  Unfortunately, he wasn't quite effective on the scoresheet, only notching 23 goals in the process.  I would still be weary of Booth, as much as I'd like to believe in him.
Sami SaloVAN2010After tearing his Achilles tendon in the off-season last year, Salo missed out on 55 games of the Canucks season.  The oft-injured Salo is a high risk, high reward defenseman and will continue to be for the rest of his career.  It has been said that he is entering camp at 100%, but that should be taken with a grain of salt.
Johan FranzenDET2010When you deal in front of the opposition net, you're bound to get a knock or two from the defense... the story of Franzen's career.  Franzen is generally good to miss 5-to-10 games a year, with all sorts of injuries.  In 2011, he missed six games, four of them to a groin injury.  He's an okay pick, just don't expect 82 games.
Joffrey LupulTOR2010A bad back really did a number on Lupul over the past few seasons, but being surgically repaired and having played the final 54 games of the regular season in 2011 gives reason to be optimistic.  Lupul does have a record being out of the line-up for stretches, but it looks like it won't be because of a recurring back injury.
Sheldon SourayDAL2010Souray's main reason for not playing in the NHL during the 2011 season was his salary and cap hit were too much for the Oilers to bear, especially when he didn't want to play for the team anymore.  Even in a full season in the AHL, Souray didn't manage to play every game and has been hit and miss for the better part of his career regardless.  A move to Dallas likely won't change that much.
Mike KomisarekTOR2010In six full NHL seasons, Komisarek has only played a full 82-game schedule once, back in 2007.  Komisarek is a physical defenseman, who doesn't shy from good body contact or blocking shots.  Players can only play that way for so long, so it is important to take note of that.  Thankfully, he isn't too offensive to be considered to highly.
Martin HavlatSAN2010I don't think it is unfair to call Havlat a soft player, especially since he doesn't really mix it up in the corners or throw many checks, but he's still hurt a lot in his career.  Havlat has never played a full 82-game schedule, played 81 games once, but he has not been overly durable.  The move to San Jose from Minnesota might not help him much, especially since he won't be as protected playing on those top lines.
Marco SturmVAN2010Another ironic injury replacement in Vancouver, as Sturm has been brought in as a free agent to help ease the burden of being without Ryan Kesler and Mason Raymond, but only was able to play 35 games in the 2011 season, thanks to knee injuries.  Sturm last played a full 82-game season back in 2003, so his record is almost certain of some time on the shelf.
Alexander SeminWAS2010When dealing with Semin, he's another player that you just have to concede losing games with.  There is no question how talented he is, but he is another one of those soft players that seems to get hurt more often than anyone would like.  In 2011, he missed a 12-game stretch with a hip injury, so he will miss long periods, so buyer beware.
Andrei MarkovMTL2010Knees and other assorted lower-body injuries have been the biggest problem for Markov in recent years, as the Russian blueliner has missed 112 games over the last two seasons, which is cause for concern.  Markov is not slated to play in the Canadiens' pre-season and his availability for the start of the season is in doubt, so you may want to stay away for as long as possible.
Pierre-Marc BouchardMIN2010Concussion troubles start started in March 2009 forced the Wild playermaker to miss 112 consecutive games, but he did return at the beginning of December and he managed to play the remaining 59 games for Minnesota without issue.  Bouchard has been a fairly reliable player for the Wild in his career, but the 'c' word is a cloud that looms large for us poolies.  Depth forward, look for a bargain here.

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