Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Pool Outlook for Winnipeg

You don't see very many fighter planes scratch and claw through a dogfight or lather up the elbow grease for a landing onto an aircraft carrier, but these Winnipeg Jets fought for every inch on the ice in the regular season and they finally brought playoff hockey back to the proud city of Winnipeg this Spring.

Sure, the Jets were stymied and swept by the Anaheim Ducks in the opening round, but they were in this series, holding leads in the first three games, up until crunch time, when the overpowering Ducks flexed their muscle and stole games away.  This wasn't a fault of the Jets, as expectations were either met or exceeded with the arrival into the playoffs, but now that they have made it, there will be that desire for something more.

The leadership group of this Jets club has seen some playoff success in the past, a good portion of these Jets were the sell-offs from the 2010 Chicago Blackhawks team, which dumped a bunch of salary on the previous rendering of this side, down in Atlanta.

Patience and understanding will still be the name of the game from Jets management, as they continue to stress their long-term plan and when you look at it on paper, I believe the fan base will be rewarded in time with management's plan.

Excitement in the Jets hit the pool this season as well, as the draft saw 10 Winnipeg player taken to start the year and through mid-season trades in the league and Waiver Drafts in the pool, the membership of Jets at the end of the year was up to 15 players, none of which were drops.  It may not have been much of a talking point, but it was quietly a building plot line this year.

The Winnipeg Jets are a grinding team, short on skill on paper, but certainly not short on heart and that begins and ends with their captain, Andrew Ladd, who led the team with 62 points in 81 games, including 24 goals on the year.  Ladd is asked to lead this team by example and that's exactly what he does and his example of work ethic and driving to the net paid off, both on the scoresheet and in the standings at the end of the year.  It may be a bit presumptuous to say that the Jets will only go as far as Ladd will take them, that isn't quite the case, but he's certainly going the right way to help get the most out of his teammates, which is what a good captain should do.  If he wants to be a good hockey pool player at the same time, even better!

Including Ladd, the Jets had seven pool worthy forwards on their end-of-season roster, they also boasted one forward that was on the cusp and a rookie that was really making waves late in the year.  Starting with the pool forwards, Blake Wheeler (26 goals), Bryan Little (24 goals), Mark Scheifele (49 points), Drew Stafford (43 points), Michal Frolik (42 points) and Mathieu Perreault (41 points) were all great in the year, Stafford coming late in the deal that helped change the complexion of the team overall.  Another deadline pick-up, Jiri Tlusty was on the cusp and rookie Adam Lowry had a really good push at the end of the year and may get an extra good look next season.

The positional enigma, which is Dustin Byfuglien, was announced in the preseason to be a forward, but some mid-season injury problems, forced the hulking utility player to switch back to defense and frankly, his numbers were better from the back end.  He finished 143rd in pool scoring, but his positional ranks still sit among the forwards on the year, so they are sort of skewed.  Tyler Myers, also an addition in the season, finished with 28 points and a renewed look on his career.  Both Tobias Enstrom and Jacob Trouba had some injury concerns in the year, but still finished amongst the pool worthy defenders, which has to keep Jets fans excited.

The Jets goaltending tandem was another story, which shocked and amazed as a whole.  Both Ondrej Pavelec (22 wins) and Michael Hutchinson (21 wins) gave their team all of what they had and rewarded their faith in their starts with some pretty reasonable numbers for a platooning tandem.  At the end of the year, they ranked 22nd and 29th among all goalies in points, which isn't too bad, when you consider that they properly shared the net, Pavelec only 700 minutes better than Hutchinson in the end.

2016 Pool Outlook

Today, I think the Jets are going to be a fun team to project for next season, because there have been so many more pluses happening for this side than negatives, so you know that the franchise is going the right way.  These Jets are going to become flashier and more popular as the years go on, by the look of things, but you will have to temper your own excitement, if you're going to try and win your hockey pool.

The Jets will be wise, not to infuse their lineup with too many rookies at the same time, but with how much talent they have in the wings, it will be hard not to.  It will be like a kid wanting to unwrap all of his toys and only play with one forever and ever, leaving the rest lying around.  Forwards Nikolaj Ehlers and Nic Petan, defenseman Josh Morrissey and even goalie Eric Comrie are all reasons for excitement in Winnipeg down the road.  Next season, it sounds like Ehlers has the best shot at being a Calder Trophy finalist contender, while the other three may still get some seasoning in the AHL.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

With patience, this team has done marvels with a budget and looking forward to the 2016 season, the budget still seems to be intact, even if they are spending just a bit more to keep some of the players they acquired through the year, having a solid core of players.  The Jets have 31 players signed and they are coming in at a very reasonable $59.4 million in total, still with about $12 million left under the projected cap ceiling.  The Jets are likely still going to be a budget team and what a budget team they can be!

Money will need to be spent and I could see the team making moves on future unrestricted free agents like Drew Stafford or Lee Stempniak, while others like Michal Frolik, Jiri Tlusty or Jim Slater, could be thought of as after thoughts.

The players that saw the most ice-time and headed to restricted free agency likely won't have any impact on the hockey pools and may have some second thoughts about being qualified as well.

Needs at the 2015 Entry Draft

If patience is the name of the game, then the Jets don't have any immediate needs from the 2015 draft, as they will likely be looking for something more long-term, possibly unafraid to look towards the college ranks or a player that has the skill, but needs that extra bit of physical maturity, since they are already knee deep in talent in the pool.  These suggestions in consideration and we come up with Nick Merkley from the Kelowna Rockets, who may be thought to be undersized, but a great thinker in the game.  There would be no rush for him to make it into the lineup, so allowing him to grow into knowing his size better may suit the Jets, as they work through their cupboards ahead of him.

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

It has been well-documented that the Jets are in no hurry to really make that push to the off-season, but you would think that they would be getting close to that point. Yes, they will be relying on their own picks and yes, it looks like Pavelec will still be the guy to carry the load and yes, the blueline will be the key component of keeping their heads afloat... so, with all of that being said, I'm predicting a lack of change in their standing in the 2015 season. They'll keep the fans excited up until the last couple weeks of the season, but until they have that bona fide, established talent up front, I am not going to give them the benefit of the doubt any time soon.

I didn't give them the benefit of the doubt and I will go out and say that my gut feeling on them was wrong.  Now, with that being said, they were heading the same way, doing all the same things, up until the New Year, when they made that deal with the Sabres to acquire Tyler Myers, Drew Stafford and prospects in a deal that sent troubled forward Evander Kane the other way.  Those are the things you don't count on and happen in the year and in this case, it really turned the tide of this team and solidified them as a real hard-working side.

Today, this team is short of a guaranteed fireworks show, but if Nikolaj Ehlers is going to make an impact in the 2016 season, the Jets could go from a wild card team to a 2-3 team in the Central Division, no matter how difficult the Central may be going into next season.  The Jets have the makeup of a team that plays a very hard-nosed Western Conference game and one that can dominate the East, where they can make up a lot of points in the standings.  It's hard not to like where this team is going and I think the Jets will reward those who have faith in them.

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