Pool Outlook for Chicago

Finally, the 2015 Stanley Cup champions will finish this round of Pool Outlooks for the Spring, as the early session of off-season hockey pool homework now comes to an end.

You should only measure a team's success by the end result and you can't get much better than the championship, no matter how lacklustre their regular season may have been.  However, the model of the last number of Cup winners has been designed on strict playoff success, which doesn't absolutely need a dominant regular season.  This year, the Blackhawks were the #4 seed in the Western Conference, overshadowed by a couple division rivals and a pretty good team in the Pacific as well.

Nevertheless, once the puck drops at the Spring Dance, the Blackhawks are immediately considered to be a favourite, no matter what you think about their goaltending.  Their core group of players allows for interchangeable parts to come in and out of the roster and still feature successfully where it matters the most.

The management team in Chicago will have their hands full in this off-season, which may challenge the core group of players, but they've seen this challenge before and prevailed before too long.  But that thought process comes after the review of the regular season, so let's start with that and then move on to the future.

It shouldn't come as any real surprise that the Blackhawks were a popular team at the draft, as 13 players were taken in the initial draft, then another couple players were taken at the Waiver Draft, while a couple were dropped in those same drafts, so there were 15 Blackhawks touched by the pool and 13 of them were on active rosters by season's end.  Maybe if the Blackhawks were a higher scoring team in 2016, the popularity would have been through the roof.

With that being said, it does come somewhat as a surprise that 69 points was good enough to end up leading the Blackhawks in pool scoring, but thanks to injury, that opened up the door for Corey Crawford to be the best pool player on the team, finishing with 32 wins and those 69 points, which ranked him 35th overall in pool scoring, 15th among all goalies.  There was a high expectation for a Blackhawks player (or two) to finish within the top-23 overall, but no one did, Crawford finishing as a mid-2nd round pick, if the draft was redone on the merits of scoring in the year.

Up front, Jonathan Toews led the way with 66 points in 81 games, while Patrick Kane, who missed the last 21 regular season games to a broken clavicle, was on pace for a much better showing, scoring 64 points in only 61 games.  Toews was 23rd among forwards and Kane was 28th.  Those among the other pool-worthy forwards were Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad, Patrick Sharp, Antoine Vermette, Brad Richards and Kris Versteeg, all finishing in the top 184.

From the blueline, the scoring wasn't nearly as proficient from there either and it showed with only two defenders in the top 92, to be pool worthy.  Duncan Keith had 10 goals and 45 points in 80 games, while Brent Seabrook had 8 goals and 32 points in all 82 games.  Niklas Hjalmarsson was close to the nod, finishing 96th with 19 points in all 82 games as well.  A slightly underwhelming season from the Blackhawks defense.

Behind Crawford, the Hawks had a couple of keepers that were okay in relief, as Scott Darling even had to come in to start the playoffs and played well.  Darling qualified in the top 46, finishing 43rd among all goalies with 9 wins and 20 points, while Antti Raanta, who started the season as the back-up, finished with 7 wins and 18 points, finishing 49th.  Crawford took the bulk of the minutes, but Chicago got good value from their other keepers.

2016 Pool Outlook

As a hockey pool team, not necessarily as an NHL team, the Blackhawks really were a let down in the 2015 season and you can possibly blame Kane's injury for that or at least a part of that.  Even without Kane, the Blackhawks were still a good side, thanks in large part to their depth and their coaching and there is no reason to think that this team can't win more games, but are they now showing signs of Darryl Sutter-like hockey, winning games, but not necessarily scoring tons of goals?  With a healthy Kane to start next season, I would still be excited to take Chicago players for my pool team.

One of the strengths of this Chicago organization is how they are able to stay exceptionally competitive in a cyclical world of pro sports.  This coming season may show how they do it, by how they attracted NCAA free agents to come into their fold and be a big part.  Forward Kyle Baun and defenseman Michael Paliotta were thought to be very big pick-ups at the end of the year and they were each offered a quick taste of play before the playoffs started and were along for the ride in the playoffs.  A couple of older rookies may go a long way into evolving this team further.

Free Agency and the Salary Cap

Starting with the cap number, at the time of this post, the Blackhawks have 31 players signed on for a total number of $77.3 million against the cap.  Once you were to take down that number to 23 players, the cap number would fall below the ceiling.  Still, getting there will be interesting and seeing how their free agents pan out, will also be very interesting.

With that being said, the real concern is the money that needs to be paid to the restricted free agents that are still in the fold.  Brandon Saad is the most notable RFA this Summer and his usefulness will ensure he gets a solid deal out of the Blackhawks.  Marcus Kruger and David Rundblad are also up for new deals.

Then the question will be, which of the following UFA's are going to be required for next year, as Antoine Vermette was likely a rental, Brad Richards' value will be a question, Michal Rozsival will get a long look, Johnny Oduya will be an asset worth a look, while there are some other key players for this team's depth in question.  How would the cap space be divvied out?

Needs at the 2015 Entry Draft

The Blackhawks are another one of those teams that have used their 1st round picks to help their squad win right away, as they sent their 2015 pick to the Arizona Coyotes in the deal that brought them Antoine Vermette.  With the team's success in the NCAA free agent market, there really isn't a big concern for this team to draft early in June, rather their scouting has done good things for them, especially in picks like Andrew Shaw (2011 5th rounder) or Marcus Kruger (2009 5th rounder).

What I Said Last Year, At This Time...

Is it too early to bet against the Blackhawks? I think so. A solid rest in the off-season, then back to the rigors of the NHL training camps and the Blackhawks should be as good as new. I don't think it would be out of the question to bank on a slow start, but they should be back to normal before too long. I think the Blackhawks will manage their cap situation with grace, likely moving a piece like Kris Versteeg, if they can, and then adding some of their own homegrown talent to the mix. I would imagine they'll be back in the Central Division race and back to challenging for a deep spot in the Western Conference playoffs.

The Blackhawks did get some shuffling done in the off-season and were just as good at moving some pieces in the regular season as well, returning to their high quality play in 2015.  Versteeg didn't move in the end, but other shuffles were done, more on the ins than the outs, but that worked in their favour, because not only did they challenge in the Central, they went really, really deep in the Western Conference Playoffs and beyond, as we highlighted at the beginning of the post.  They were not exactly my Stanley Cup pick at this point last year, but I did think that they would do well, so that's a plus, right?

Back-to-back Cups are nearly impossible in this day and age, but if there was ever a team to do it, it would be the Blackhawks.  Toews, Kane, Hossa, Keith, Seabrook, Crawford and company have the pieces signed on and ready to go for next season, so it will be a matter of who they let go of to gain some flexibility in the off-season.  Will Chicago return to the off-season, I'm pretty sure that it won't be a problem.  Will they be able to put enough around this core to push for another Cup?  Maybe not in the off-season, as the numbers don't seem to be pointing in their favour, but once the season gets started and the trade deadline rolls around, I don't see why they couldn't make that push.  There are a lot of variables to consider, but the constants should give this team lots of confidence.