Friday, September 04, 2015

The Sports Forecaster 2015-16 NHL Preview & Fantasy Guide

Sure, Sportsnet's pool guide didn't have very many players, something that the Sports Forecaster (TSF) magazine takes care of.  TSF actually covers a lot of ground in their guide, even listing players in their team breakdowns without any projections.  I'm not quite sure what that's about, but if you don't think a player should be picked on a team, maybe you can give them a very poor number?  Heck, you gave Reto Berra 1 win (2 points) in your forecasting!

The depth for each team is fairly substantial from TSF, which makes this some really good reading.  Come draft day (October 3rd for us), they also provide a good pull-out for a 500-skater list, plus a top-50 goalie list, which may or may not be enough for our draft, but at least it will be close.  Their pull-out does a good job highlighting the rookies, injury prone and players on contract years, if you're looking for an Alexander Mogilny-type player.

As for the reading, they do a pretty good job outlining who to watch out for in every position and they toss out some pretty interesting theories, especially in net.  They expect to see Eddie Lack, Antti Niemi and Petr Mrazek to take over some starting jobs through the season, which is pretty interesting and not at all far-fetched, by the end of the year.  TSF is also pretty high on Max Domi in Arizona, which could have a big impact on the rookie race this year and I like the sound of that race being interesting.

This is the fourth pool guide reviewed this year (it's been a very slow Summer), and TSF is the second guide to rule Sidney Crosby as the top player available at the draft, once I calculated all the goalie points.  Crosby leads all players in their projections with 108, leading both John Tavares and Carey Price, who both came in at 100 points as well.  All three players have had votes as the top player among all the pool guides, so that's something they can all really agree upon.

TSF also has another nine players in the 90+ range as well, which suggests that there will be some very good top end talent for us to choose from this year.  Patrick Kane, Evgeni Malkin, Tyler Seguin, Alex Ovechkin, Phil Kessel, Steven Stamkos, Henrik Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne and Braden Holtby all round out that list.  These guys have all been staples among all the mags this year, in varying degrees.

Out of those top 12 players mentioned, eight of them are forwards, as they are pushing for an offensive flurry of action this year and I wonder if that has more to do with the 3-on-3 overtime situations this year, which I hope boost scoring numbers as well, but I'm not holding my breath.  Rounding out the top 10 forwards on their list is a tie with 89 points, between Vladimir Tarasenko and Claude Giroux, both could very well be 1st round picks this year.

A consensus has happened among all the guides, if you're looking to corner the market on the top defenseman, you have to go with Erik Karlsson in Ottawa, but he only just clips P.K. Subban in Montreal by a couple points, 71-69.  If teams down at the bottom of the 1st round don't capitalize on a good starting goalie, I could see a team or two trying to capitalize on a top end defender, relying on the gap between the elite and the good players.

Brent Burns, Shea Weber, Victor Hedman, Kevin Shattenkirk, Tyson Barrie, Roman Josi, John Carlson and Mark Giordano are the rest of the top 10 defenders, ranging from 55 points to 61 points, keeping it pretty tight among the prognostications.

With Price, Lundqvist, Rinne and Holtby leading the way for the keepers, the top 10 rounds out with Semyon Varlamov, Jaroslav Halak, Sergei Bobrovsky, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jonathan Quick and Roberto Luongo, throwing some interesting names into the mix.  Goalies are going to be a hot commodity this year, especially with the potential of a mini-game with their names on it.

Speaking of mini-games, how about the rookie potential?  Another consensus pick in Connor McDavid leading the way, right smack-dab in the middle of most of the other projections, TSF giving him 80 points to work with, 25th in projections overall.  Max Domi is the 2nd-best rookie on their list, 3 points ahead of Jack Eichel, 68-65.  Sam Bennett of the Flames is in the mix, looking at 57 points, while Blackhawks newcomer, Artemi Panarin is in at 55 points.  An interesting top five for the freshmen.

Out of the four, the TSF guide is definitely one of the easier to understand and they do a bit better at justifying why some players are where they are, instead of bogging you down with advanced stat theories or fancy graphics.  Having that pull-out is also a huge plus for any poolie, especially when a draft moves swiftly through the rounds.

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