Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Who Would Have Won If the Draft Went According to the Final Numbers?

Out of curiosity (and some out of boredom), I thought I would take the draft order that we had come up with and redo the draft, as per the scoring ranks we finished up with in the regular season and applying the rules of the pool, just to see what we would have come up with.  In the draft, it's eight forwards, four defensemen and a pair of goalies, so if they were already full up on a position or two, they would take the next best in the position(s) they hadn't filled.

Pick/Finish Draft Actual Finish Points What If Points
1st John S. Jeremy 661 John S. 616
2nd Mike Brenda & Seward 655 Mike 615
3rd John R. Brian 637 Derek & Dan 612
4th Allan Eric 627 John R. 612
5th Eric Ryan 623 Eric 604

As the draft order went, John S., Mike and John R. took the 1st, 2nd and 3rd picks in the pool draft and the final order for players went John S., Mike and then Derek & Dan for the money positions.  The one remarkable team on this list belongs to Eric, as his team shows up on each list, getting a good draft pick, finishing a little bit better than his pick and the 'what if' scenario played out well for his pick position as well.

I think one of the most interesting things about the teams is how spread out the talent was, which was what led to the top four teams finishing among the top.  John S. didn't have a starting goalie on his team, while Mike and John R. only had one, and then Derek & Dan managed to snag a couple mid-range starters.  Let's have a quick peek at how John S.'s draft would have gone to win this 'what if' scenario.

John Swan Position Team Round
Patrick Kane F CHI 1
Mark Stone F OTT 2
Roman Josi D NAS 3
Leon Draisaitl F EDM 4
Mikkel Boedker F ARI/COL 5
Nino Niederreiter F MIN 6
Rickard Rakell F ANA 7
Tobias Rieder F ARI 8
Nick Foligno F CBJ 9
Alec Martinez D LOS 10
Jake Gardiner D TOR 11
Antti Raanta G NYR 12
Jonas Gustavsson G BOS 13
Brett Pesce D CAR 14

On the surface, this is a pretty good looking team, regardless.  In this 'what if' scenario, you're not going to see any bargain picks, you'll be getting players where they should land, for the most part.  The separation of Patrick Kane to the rest of the pool was probably the biggest reason why John got such a good finish, but as we all know, that's just not how the draft works out every year.

Another interesting point was Kristy & Don, who picked last in the snake order, their team finished 14th out of the 27 teams in the pool standings, the way that it all fell.  Of course, the season doesn't finish like what the final rankings are and the duo actually finished 6th, thanks to a good fortune in the Waiver Draft.

The real benefit to picking in those first 10 spots is that you're going to get some top end talent, but it is what you do in the remaining 13 rounds that really defines your team.  In John S.'s case, he had Carey Price with the 1st overall pick and he managed to snag Patrick Kane with the top pick n the 3rd round, but his team still failed to crack the top half of the standings.  Some of it is luck and some of it is also what your fellow poolies are drafting around the same time.

Next season will run much of the same way for the draft order, because it is quick and easy.  I will do more of a roll call before clicking the button and determining the order, avoiding that snafu I had this year.
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